What is really in store for 2021…
Here we are. New Year. New hope. New vaccine.
We also have a new variant.
Where do we stand?
COVID rates appear to be rising post-holiday. This is not surprising. With travel at its highest level since last March and the likely arrival of the COVID-19 variant, transmission is taking hold.
What is a variant?
Virus mutations are common, especially when disease is so widespread. Every time a virus replicates inside the body there is a chance for mutation as it makes copies of its genetic material. Some of those changes end up taking off because they make the virus spread easier (or for a variety of other reasons) and the variant out-competes the old version.
What about this variant?
There are two of interest – one found in the UK, the other South Africa. The UK variant is concerning because it replicates faster in the body and spreads easier thanks to higher viral load in the body. The UK variant does not cause more severe illness, is detected by standard tests, and should be susceptible to the vaccine.
The South African variant has some of the same mutations as the UK strain, some new. However, there are changes still being evaluated.
What does this mean?
Get ready. We’re in for a long winter.
What about schools?
The perpetual question. From a data standpoint we are precariously close to the threshold at which schools can apply for waivers. It should become clear over the next few days whether the increasing trend will continue. If so, students, as with the usual COVID-19 strains, are susceptible to the variant and any congregation will help it spread.
But we have VACCINE!
Yes, we do. And our public health and healthcare workers are doing their very BEST to get those doses in arms. It’s going to take time. Remember, our health systems are large and the SAME people caring for our sick, investigating cases, moving essential PPE, and managing this pandemic are also putting doses in arms. We must have patience, understanding, and continue taking personal responsibility to protect ourselves and one another.
Lightening Round!
The South African variant is resistant to the vaccine.
FALSE. All signs point to the vaccine being efficacious, though research is underway.
We didn’t see a surge post-Thanksgiving and probably won’t now.
FALSE. Between increased travel and the new virus, another surge is likely.
The FDA is allowing vaccines to be used interchangeably.
FALSE. The FDA is only allowing administration of two doses of the SAME vaccine.
The FDA is exploring whether Moderna doses may be cut in half to vaccinate more people.
TRUE. FDA committees are evaluating this possibility and will make a recommendation.
If there were variants in the US, we would know it.
SORT of TRUE. We only test 0.03% of lab specimens, so any new strain is not likely to be quickly detected.
Be safe and stay healthy .
Resources
CDC COVID-19 variant information
https://www.cdc.gov/.../scientific-brief-emerging...
Efficacy and safety of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine. Of 30,420 volunteers, efficacy was 94.1% with only 30 participants developing severe illness and one fatality. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2035389...
Safety and efficacy clinical trial data review of the Pfizer vaccine. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577...