COVID-19 Fatigue: The struggle is real
Where do we stand?
The case map of the Midwest looks like the fire map of the West. Iowa has not sustained deceleration since our attempt to flatten the curve in April/May. Most states are not maintaining low levels of activity.
Why do cases continue to rise in Iowa?
Surges in cases happened initially in more densely populated areas of Iowa, then surged again after reopening mainly in those same areas. In late summer, new counties saw outbreaks then university campus counties brought a new mass of infections. Now we see western counties with lower populations being impacted. Hospitalizations reached the highest level of the pandemic last week.
This virus cycles. It cycles through regions, states, counties, and even families. Once one cycle subsides another takes its place, usually in a different but adjacent area. This will continue to happen as the majority of Iowa’s population (and the world) are still susceptible to this virus. The extensive disease activity now is setting the stage for a severe winter. We are not in another wave. The first wave never ended.
Why this is dangerous…
Earlier this week a case was reported where a 25-year-old had an infection with COVID-19 in April, two negative tests, then a second infection in June more serious than the first. The viruses were genetically distinct. This case highlights the possibility of reinfection after recovery.
Continuously high numbers of infections provide increasing opportunity for COVID-19 to mutate.
Vaccine insight
The first round of vaccines produced by Pfizer and Moderna are speculated for release later this fall, though early 2021 seems more realistic. Doses will likely be targeted to healthcare workers, though the exact prioritization has not been determined.
Pfizer has indicated they will not apply for emergency use authorization until late November, after which the FDA will take several weeks to decide whether to authorize. Pfizer recently began trials with children as young as 12. Moderna plans to wait to apply for authorization until after a significant number of volunteers were exposed to or became sick with COVID to determine the efficacy of the vaccine.
Vaccines made by Pfizer and Moderna act with similar mechanisms. Both use messenger RNA (mRNA) to produce viral protein in the body (not actual virus). The mRNA provides the blueprint for producing viral protein. The vaccine does not involve injecting virus into the body.
While a mRNA vaccine has never made it to market, Moderna was recently working on a mRNA vaccine for MERS, a viral relative of COVID-19, which provided a strong foundation for their COVID vaccine.
Two obstacles remain – production and distribution. In order to remain intact, mRNA vaccines must be produced and maintained at -112°F.
Is there any good news?
Well, not much. We need to be careful going into winter, avoid large gatherings at the holidays, continuing to wear masks, and adapt. We are adapting and finding ways to stay connected. These next few months are critical.
The BEST action right now – Get Your Flu Shot.
Stay safe and healthy .
https://www.nytimes.com/.../us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
https://coronavirus.iowa.gov/pages/case-counts
https://www.nytimes.com/.../coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html