The Next Four Weeks

The Iowa surge is finally stabilizing, albeit at an embarrassing, unsustainable level. This peak was three times that of the first. Hospitalizations remain dangerously high. Iowa set a new record with 41 deaths reported yesterday, which equals all deaths reported for entirety of the H1N1 pandemic.

We have four weeks to drive cases down in order to avoid a far worse surge in January. Four. Weeks. Why?

There is no precedence for a fourth pandemic peak in the middle of winter. The current peak was expected to triple the first based on the H1N1 pandemic experience. However, all models point to a substantial, prolonged surge in January, February, and March if we do not drive our infection rate to a level lower than experienced at any time in this pandemic.

Despite new state guidance this week, the science is clear and there are NO exceptions for time, type of sport, or group size.

• Masks, always, in public. Period. Masks do not inhibit breathing or affect oxygen saturation.

• CDC recommends against gatherings outside of the immediate household next week. Ours is cancelled.

• The Polk County Health Department supports a FULL mask mandate, and recommends cessation of ALL sports at the high school and college level as those activities have contributed to outbreaks.

• Have the hard conversations with people refusing to hear the science.

Should you be attending a group exercise class? No

Should your child be wrestling? No. What about basketball? Seriously, no.

Should I get a flu shot? What?! Yes! Now!

Should you be working out in a gym if you are at risk for serious infection? No

Should you walk into a gas station for 10 minutes without a mask because all you need is a Powerball ticket? No

Can you walk or ride your bike outside? Yes

Can you walk with friends outside? Yes, if masked and distanced.

Can I walk to the pool, swim, and leave? Yes

Can I continue sending my child to daycare? Yes, but be sure your center takes precautions and notifies you of any cases. Have a plan B. Know you might need alternate care for 14 days if an exposure occurs.

Can I go to a wedding? OMG.

Can I support local businesses instead of Black Friday shopping? YES!

Advocacy

Outside of personal protection, advocacy remains our most powerful tool. We must continue contacting the Governor now for a plan (515-281-5211). Our calls are making a difference. Make this a priority.

• We need a graduated response plan with corresponding actions so we can anticipate and react to the inevitable surge in winter. Many European countries have such plans in place and managed to flatten their curves while keeping schools open. Case in point, France (https://www.nytimes.com/.../france-coronavirus-cases.html).

• We need to double testing to be able diagnose AND detect asymptomatic cases.

• We need guidelines grounded in science without exclusions.

WHERE IS THE LIGHT?!!

Friends, we are running an ultramarathon at altitude in the dark with a sprained ankle and no access to medical care. The vaccine is coming, but it will take time. We have to manage at least six more months of this before we reach levels of community impact.

There is no room for error here. We have four weeks.

If you want to learn about COVID in DSM and a little about the virus/vaccine, here is the Facebook live event from earlier this week with the Polk County Health Department Director Helen Eddy and me, with Matt McCoy as our facilitator. Helen is a brave, intelligent leader, and her words deserve to be heard. https://www.facebook.com/48224240894/videos/800223590821203

If you are struggling with isolation, depression, or any mental health issue, there are resources. Use them.

Your Life Iowa – 24/7 crisis support in the state of Iowa (call, text or live-chat)

• Call 1-855-581-8111 or text to 1-855-895-8398