COVID-19: Myth Buster Edition

Several folks have asked about my background - I am the owner/CEO of Aperio Statistical Consulting, an infectious disease epidemiologist who previously worked at the state health department, taught epidemiology at Drake University, and hold degrees in microbiology, epidemiology, public administration, and a doctorate. I have 17 peer-reviewed publications mainly on infectious disease topics. In forming these updates, I pull information from many sources, cross-validate data, and include conclusions from studies with robust design. I welcome feedback and questions any time.

Hydroxychloroquine

            Multiple studies conducted in several countries show this medication, even when used with azithromycin, is not reliably effective nor is it without detrimental effects. Throughout this debate, there were observational studies showing positive effects of the drug in one group compared to a group that did not receive the drug. Observational studies (such as the one published by Henry Ford) are the weakest study design as you cannot control for factors influencing the true effect of what is being studied. Recent, randomized control trials show no effectiveness when using hydroxychloroquine after exposure or for treatment.

            Hydroxychloroquine is not without side effects and is not recommended for use by the National Institutes of Health, Oxford University (here’s a great review - https://www.idsociety.org/practice-guideline/covid-19-guideline-treatment-and-management/), or the World Health Organization. Let’s put this one to bed, friends.

It’s a bacteria

            Nope. Those autopsies in Italy did not find anything new. We can see the virus under a microscope and know it’s a virus. Bacteria have completely different characteristics and mechanisms of infection.

We all need herd immunity

            Approximately 60-80% of a population must have antibodies to a pathogen in order for disease to stop spreading. The concept of herd immunity is why widespread vaccination keeps diseases at bay. We are far from reaching herd immunity in any area of the world. Even in NYC, population immunity lies at only 20%. In addition, immunity may not last long resulting in reinfection of people who were sick previously.  

China made the virus

            Fortunately, mankind is not smart enough to make a new virus. We know the genetic sequence of this any many other viruses, but we do not know how to change those sequences to alter the pathogenicity resulting in an entirely new virus. Researchers can and have developed ways to weaponize pathogens, but if that occurred, widespread disease would happen all at once, not over time.

Drink bleach

            Let’s just not.

Case counts include confirmed and probable cases

            Yes, some states are reporting laboratory-confirmed cases and probable, which are cases not yet laboratory confirmed. This is standard epidemiologic practice as long as the reporting agency is following CDC case definitions, which state governments are required to do.

State death counts include non-COVID-19 related deaths. Hospitals get paid extra if a patient dies from COVID-19.

            COVID-19 deaths must meet case criteria for inclusion in fatality counts. All deaths are certified by medical examiners and are required reportable events to public health. Hospitals are not being paid extra for caring for a deceased COVID-19 patient.

America’s Frontline Doctors are our new leaders

            Please don’t make my head explode. We cannot place trust in anyone, regardless of their political alliance, who lacks the proper experience and credentials for educating the public on COVID-19. Misinformation can come from anywhere. Do not watch the video, keep listening to Dr. Fauci, our local health officials, and the epidemiologists who’ve been in the trenches from the very beginning.

The vaccine will have a microchip in it to track our movements (or Bill Gates will implant something)

            There are a multitude of reasons why this is not going to happen. The government can already track our movements using cell phone data, fitness apps, computer usage, etc. I highly doubt the government or Bill Gates would find value, let alone time, financing, and ability to microchip the world.    

Alcohol kills everything so I’m safe if I’m drinking

            Nope. Not even whiskey. Of course do not consume them, but strong antimicrobial cleaners should take care of the virus.

Stay Safe and Healthy – Wear a MASK!!