Week 6
Is it time? Is it almost time? What will happen when it’s time?
All signs point to opening businesses slowly over the next several weeks. The first steps are to expand testing capacity while solidifying public health resources for contract tracing/investigation. The TestIowa.com campaign appears to be ramping up to meet the need.
The Federal government outlined the phases of reopening recommended for states and localities. The basis is to open slowly, and survey for cases (for about 14 days), then open more businesses IF cases do not spike and survey for cases. The approach is not overly reassuring, but is prudent. There are other countries further along in their experience than the US or Iowa and their data will help inform how reopening might go.
Keep in mind…this may not work. We could see a resurgence. We could see a second wave. Or we could successfully, gradually reopen with caution knowing we save the REAL enthusiasm for when we have a vaccine.
How do WE make this work?
By protecting ourselves and our families first AND considering how our actions affect others. We have to reframe our mindsets long term. We have to continue thinking about keeping store trips to a minimum, limiting or avoiding group interactions, maintaining distance, wearing person protection, and being hyper-vigilant around those who are at risk for serious illness.
My immediate family is not planning on changing much after restrictions lift. We’ve cancelled vacations and will continue to listen to public health recommendations. We MAY start to interact with family if we stay healthy throughout May and surveillance data support reopening is safe.
Why are case counts not going down?
The country is SLOWLY decelerating. Keep in mind, case counts will frequently spiking due to outbreaks and increased surveillance testing. Looking at case counts alone does not paint the whole picture. It is important to note in Iowa, targeted surveillance in long term care facilities and among meat packing plant workers resulted in detection of new cases, many of which were not yet symptomatic. With the expansion of testing will come identification of new cases. This is a GOOD thing as our Public Health Heroes will contract trace and investigate, as they have this entire outbreak.
What about antibody testing?
Antibodies are the microscopic warriors your body creates and retains in fighting an infection. You hang onto those warriors for various periods of time depending on the type of infection. Antibody testing looks for evidence of antibodies confirming a person had an infection. HOWEVER, antibody testing is not easily scalable nor does it guarantee a person will not get sick again.
The CDC and other countries have already begun to examine how many people have evidence of infection in a given area, which could be extrapolated to comparable populations.
What about this whole man-made virus theory?
While it makes for a sensational story to say this was bioengineered, humans are just not quite there. All pathogens have genetic mapping (called phylogenic trees) shared internationally similar to the human genome. There are deviations that occur as viruses evolve and infect multiple species over time. Scientists can determine when viral genetics shift, drift or were engineered. Humans are NOT quite advanced enough to mimic evolutionary changes. Human changes are significant and abrupt because we don’t know what most genes in pathogens do for a living. In other words, this did not come from a lab in China, or Russia…it came from a cave bat who infected some other species who then infected a bunch of people in an animal market. The species between the cave bat and people is not yet known.
[Side note – Humans have put infectious diseases into weapons, which is COMPLETELY different than genetically modifying a pathogen]
Key takeaways – Be careful. Reframe thinking for the LONG TERM. Continue supporting businesses virtually and from a distance. The more we support each other, the better and stronger the outcome.