Week 4 - Is this the Peak?
Where are we in this pandemic?
In Iowa, it appears we are in the peak phase of the pandemic. Various models indicate a later in the month peak (I don’t agree), and we should have a better sense as we progress through this week. Overall, we are trending very similarly to our neighbors to the north (MN).
There are many of parts of the country accelerating or surging. Case growth rates are slowing in NY, NJ, FL, and New England as a whole. This means total cases may continue to grow, but by fewer new cases each day.
National models were recently adjusted to lower hospitalization and fatality rates. Estimates are still higher than the worst flu season on record which reached 61k deaths.
Fatalities may continue to rise throughout the country’s peak days and even into deceleration. There is a delay between symptom onset, test detection and hospitalization and death.
Shelter in place debate
This has become a divisive issue in Iowa. The governor seems to have put this to rest with her conversation with Dr. Fauci. However, I hope law enforcement supports these orders with even more diligence as indicated in the governor’s press conference Monday (not that I want law enforcement exposed, but people are people). After running in the park on Sunday and seeing CYCLISTS pretending to ride 6’ apart, it is clear some are not following directions.
Bottomline - We can only control ourselves. If MOST follow, the majority will be protected. Kudos to those who are doing their best. It stinks, but that group ride can wait three more weeks. It’s just not worth it.
The grocery quarantine
Some folks are wiping down groceries before storing and use - that’s fine, but probably not necessary UNLESS you are in a high risk group. It is possible to come into contact with a contaminated product, not probable. Iowa does not have extensive community spread to support evidence of mass contamination of store products.
The same recommendations as before are relevant - go to the store as minimally as possible. Remove shoes, wipe phone and wash hands when you return. Use hand sanitizer after actions where you touch a common surface.
How. Much. Longer.
No one knows for sure. Personally, I can’t watch another home fitness video. I’m pretty okay counting daily showers, 30 minutes outside, spotty reading, and daily music practice as “school” for my kids.
The most important thing is to know this week and this month matter. What you do RIGHT NOW matters most. We are getting through this.