Week 3 or 1,000,000…
When will this be over?
The million-dollar question. Models were recently published by the University of Washington, Stanford, Johns Hopkins and others. The models I’ve reviewed are more appropriately structured for cities and population-dense states (Iowa has 56 people/sq. mile; New York has 27,000!!). Iowa and several of its neighbors are reporting multiple, consecutive days of similar (and not alarming) case counts. That does NOT mean the pandemic is abating, it appears our social distancing measures are WORKING.
If you think about the timeline, Iowa identified its first case on 3/8. On March 15th, the day social distancing, mass gathering limits, and school cancellations were issued Iowa only had EIGHT cases. This was a wise and rapid action. COVID19 has an incubation period between 2-14 days. We are now more than 14 days from the start of transmission prevention measures.
So why do we have to stay home for the MONTH of APRIL?
It’s daunting. Tiring. I forget to go outside. The goal is to see a sustained decrease of cases until we know community transmission is no longer occurring. Public officials are making strong decisions to assess whether to prolong certain measures and I trust and respect their actions.
What is all this “shelter in place” stuff?
First of all, if a state or community is following a social distancing/no mass gathering guideline, the case counts will speak for themselves. If outbreaks and case surges start to happen, shelter in place orders seem to be part of the response. In Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and several other Midwest states (sorry, Missouri and Illinois, that isn’t you), the case counts per population do not seem to warrant more extensive gubernatorial orders.
Is it really safe to be outside?
Yes, as long as you’re smart about it. No playgrounds, don’t touch stuff, don’t use a drinking fountain, etc. I walk, my kid runs, we ride bikes, but we’re aware of the space between those we pass. There is still no repeated, confirmed, strong evidence that brief interactions are responsible for any significant transmission.
All evidence supports picking up a package curbside is probably okay. Ordering food is okay. Hosting poker night with 20 of your closest friends is probably NOT okay.
How do I keep track of my state?
Watch the data, but don’t obsess over it. Pandemics have distinct phases – initiation/recognition, acceleration, peak or sustained high case counts, and deceleration. When you check case counts look to see if they are higher or lower than the past several days. Are there big jumps in cases? That’s acceleration. Are there high case counts that don’t change much day by day? That’s the peak. Are case counts gradually declining? That’s probably deceleration.
All data points to the country being in the period of sustained high case counts or the peak. Some states, like Washington and California, may be decelerating. I love the data from the NYT, which somehow manages to compile case counts quicker than CDC!
I hope you find this useful! Stay safe, stay home, and stay well!
PS - I included a graphic below of new, daily case counts for MO, IA, MN, and the US. Please note- the US is much greater in magnitude and is plotted on a secondary axis.