One week down…
Where are we and where are we headed?
I’ve seen a lot of Italy/US comparison charts lately. We are accelerating faster than Italy. We have more people, more cities, and multiple points of imported cases. BUT Italy, which has experienced severe illness and death unlike other countries, has a higher median population age (48), greater population density per sq. mile, and a higher prevalence of comorbidities and high risk behavior (smoking). Therefore, even with more cases we are not likely to see the same PERCENTAGE or RATE of those cases as severe or fatal. I don’t mean to minimize, but reframe concerns that we will have an experience like Italy.
We will far exceed Italy in total cases and likely China. Even with the measures we’ve taken we are only slowing progression, not preventing spread entirely.
Projections have the US peaking sometime in April though much remains to be seen. Each state will be on a different timeline depending on the extent of early spread.
How long do we have to stay distanced?
That’s up to health officials, but everyone needs to understand that WHEN we are released from restriction, cases and outbreaks, even successive waves of illness will still occur. Even if we distanced and isolated for months, the virus is hardy enough and transmissible enough that recurrence is probable.
For context, H1N1 influenza was a pandemic in 2009 and still circulates with seasonal influenza today.
Is it safe to exercise outside?
The verdict is still out on whether the virus is killed by sunlight. Playground equipment, benches and other outdoor surfaces could be contaminated. That said, I’m running outside regularly (alone and way more than six feet from anyone) and find it really helpful.
Good resources
I’m really liking the NYT coverage as I’m
a sucker for a nice map. Most of the information released by major media is pretty spot on. Much of what is on social media is not. Don’t gargle salt water or make fabric masks just yet...
Lmk if you want me to research anything!
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?referringSource=articleShare
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html