My take on coronavirus: an epidemiologist’s reflection
As a former infectious disease epidemiologist, I have serious FOMO right now. That aside, I’ve been following this event closely and would like to share what may be helpful.
Why is COVID19 a pandemic?
The World Health Organization (WHO) considers something a pandemic when the pathogen (COVID19) is novel, has the ability to spread across the globe and to people with no immunity. Nearly all pandemics have animal origins- SARS, MERS, influenza H1N1, even West Nile Virus (remember that one?!). In China, live animal markets allow the opportunity for viruses to mutate and swap species resulting in what we have now.
Is COVID19 scary?
Sort of. Coronaviruses infect people all the time, usually in the form of the common cold.
The symptoms of COVID19 appear to be similar to influenza. Persons 80 and older and those immune-compromised (e.g., taking prednisone, on chemotherapy) are more likely to have serious illness. The fatality rate is just under 3%, also similar to flu, but is much higher in the elderly. Interestingly, incidence or cases of acute disease was not very common in people under the age of 30 in China.
The big differences between COVID19 and flu are the period of contagion and means of transmission. CDC notes a person may not get sick for 2-14 days after exposure. Think about everywhere you go in 14 days. Yeah. THAT factor alone means this will be difficult to contain. There is also evidence this virus lives on surfaces longer than a typical respiratory virus and on many different kinds of surfaces.
There is no known treatment for COVID19 as is the case for most viral respiratory illnesses.
Why all the quarantine and isolation?
Quarantine is used with people exposed to the virus who may or may not develop disease. Isolation is used for symptomatic persons with disease.
Why is the sky falling?
The decision to limit travel, cancel major events, and reduce mass gatherings is helpful. It is honestly early in the pandemic to be implementing these preventive measures which will have to be sustained for many months. It’s important to note, these efforts will only SLOW the spread of COVID19. It will still likely cause widespread illness and for many months to come.
What is my family doing?
Washing hands on entry to the house, removing shoes, using hand sanitizer, and going about our business.
Who do we listen to?
The BEST source of information is CDC. Period. They have a literal nuclear-safe bunker designed to manage global pandemics. I’ve been there. It’s amazing. We live in the best country possible for managing an event like this. There are more than 1,300 CDC public health workers all over this.
Go to CDC’s website before you travel anywhere. Be aware of travel advisories, which will be country and state-specific. Consider the necessity of travel.
Lastly, don’t panic. These things happen. I promise to post again as more concrete information becomes available from CDC. IM me if you have specific questions and I’ll try to point you to the right resource!