The Grand Reopening
First of all, kudos to those in the majority who are moving slowly in assimilating back to society (not you, Lake of the Ozarks). Many states and the US are in a very slow deceleration with surges largely due to localized outbreaks and expanded testing. Testing in most, but not all areas, is hitting the right marks. The goal- to be able to test about 2% of a state’s population every month and respond to testing needs when potential outbreaks are detected. Iowa is there and we’ve opened testing to the general public. However, it may take time for providers to acquire enough tests and supplies in all areas of the state.
Why are case counts surging in some states?
Multiple reasons. Take Minnesota- more testing and the identification of outbreaks in non-metropolitan counties. The same is occurring Iowa. Buena Vista County found over 500 employees (not all symptomatic) positive in yet another meat packing plant. Nebraska has a plant-related surge in Dakota County (South Sioux City). This is good and bad. Bad because people are still getting the virus and who tend to be the most vulnerable because of their occupation, and yet are considered “essential”. Bad because there is still active, community spread. Good because testing is identifying these clusters albeit not quite before they are full scale outbreaks.
Chicago and St. Louis look pretty good.
Omaha, Des Moines, Denver, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, and San Fran look okay. Not decelerating, not an outbreak situation. Southern states, North Carolina and the DC are do not look great.
Pay attention to where outbreaks are occurring in your state, don’t just follow state case counts. You are fine to see family, go about your business, get your hair done, and even travel short distances (which I have) while being smart.
Aren’t we all immune yet?
No. Far from it. New estimates from targeted seroprevalence (antibody) testing (which ONLY works well if you have 5% or more prevalence of disease in your community or if you were for SURE sick) in New York, Boston and other cities only show about 20% of people were exposed enough to the virus to develop antibodies. We DO NOT know if antibodies protect against reinfection nor can less populous states assume their seroprevalence is anywhere near that of a big city.
When will the Herd be immune?
Rough estimates assume about 60% of people in a community need immunity in order to stop community spread and protect the naive 40%. This means every community is susceptible to peaks within this wave of the pandemic and to future waves until that happens- likely when we have a vaccine.
Time for some good news
The CDC is backing off guidance around fomite or contaminated surface spread. While there is evidence the virus lives on surfaces for days, there is not likely enough to infect someone for days unless recently, heavily contaminated. So...if an infectious person touches their mouth, then pushes an elevator button, and you push the SAME button right after AND touch YOUR face, that could make you sick. Keep sanitizing after touching shared surfaces in public. Stop wiping down your groceries.
If you are older or immune compromised, nothing changes for you or your close friends and family. You are special and still need protection .
Summer travel??
I don’t know yet. We have plans at the end of June. Those plans involve a plane. We’re watching and waiting to see if the area were traveling to remains safe. Everything else is a long drive to the middle of nature!
Resources
Iowa- https://coronavirus.iowa.gov
Minnesota- https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/situation.html
Nebraska- https://nebraska.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/4213f719a45647bc873ffb58783ffef3
Colorado- https://covid19.colorado.gov/covid-19-data
Illinois- https://www.dph.illinois.gov/covid19/covid19-statistics
California- https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/Immunization/ncov2019.aspx
Missouri- https://www.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=8e01a5d8d8bd4b4f85add006f9e14a9d
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?referringSource=articleShare
All other states and counties - https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/county-map.html?