Resurgence

Resurgence

I hoped to make it through a full deceleration or at least a month before writing this post, but MUCH has changed this past week. Cases are surging again. Iowa’s most populous counties – Polk, Dallas, Johnson, Black Hawk and others are now spiking again with more than a week of sustained increasing activity. More than double the normal number of people were hospitalized today. More will follow.

Only Rhode Island is decreasing, so assume no matter where you live the risk is real.

Why this is IMPORTANT?

We are no longer in quarantine. Many public places are open. People are leaving their homes. Not everyone is wearing a mask. Uncontrolled spread of this virus will make many more people sick. My concern is we will stress our healthcare system faster than social restrictions result in an impact.

This is a dangerous situation. Nearly half of all COVID-19 deaths occur in long term care settings. The more workers who become sick, the people will die. More than 1/3 of Iowa cases are health care workers. We must protect our essential workers.

Case in point – California. Restrictions have never fully been lifted in CA, yet with moderate opening the state is seeing a 45% increase in cases and ICU beds in at least one LA county is at 98% capacity. Let’s not be CA. Or Florida. Or Texas.

Another case in point – 107 cases were tied to a bar in Michigan. Let’s not be Michigan. Drink at home, friends. I hear Total Wine delivers.

Lastly, almost no one has immunity. In Iowa, estimates are about 5%. New studies are finding asymptomatic and mild cases are maintaining immunity for only about two months. More severe cases have longer protection, but it is not yet known for how long.

How does this affect me?

Right now, about 1 out of every 83 people in Iowa has had COVID. If this surge continues for months, consider your 100 close friends and family. Up to 30 may become sick. Of those 10 will be hospitalized, three of those will be in ICU, with two in ICU and on a ventilator. At least one will die.

Travel

I recently traveled by air out of state. I was careful. I stayed mostly in our rental house and the beach. I wore my mask outside and all day in the airport. Used copious amounts of sanitizer. Washed my hands all the time. The planes were fine. The airports were not. I would CANCEL the trip if I had to choose whether to travel again. CARS ONLY the rest of this summer, friends. Road trips and nature.

What did we do wrong?

A lot. The US has not handled this well. We’ve had more cases than any country in the world by far. We opened too soon and did not follow Federal guidance to open slowly then wait. We literally reopened and within a week transmission became widespread again with cases diagnosed a week later.

What do we do now?

I am not a sensationalist. If anything, I’m a naïve optimist. What is happening is not good. Take this seriously. Wear your mask. ALWAYS. Stop non-essential errands. Avoid planes. Maintain distance. Can you workout? Yes, with distance and a mask. Can you go to a restaurant? Maybe. If outside and distanced. Even then, I’d opt for takeout. Shopping? Make an appointment. Limit the number of people with you. Keep your gatherings to family or close friends and small groups.

We can do this. Together.